The four-year cycle model might be outdated according to this market thesis
According to on-chain analyst and economist Willy Woo, Bitcoin market cycles have changed completely and are now forming differently compared to previous periods. The provided data model suggests that the current bearish run might be over.
The new movement model of Bitcoin
Back in October, Woo shared “The Last Cycle” thesis, suggesting that bearish and bullish cycles on Bitcoin no longer move in four-year patterns. Mainly, halving was the main driver of each cycle: Bitcoin accumulation was increasing right before the halving, active distribution happening after that and the bearish cycle beginning in the period between halvings.
We’re likely seeing the first signs of “The Last Cycle” thesis playing out. 3 relatively short bull and bear markets have transpired since the 2019 bottom already.
i.e. No more 4 year cycles. https://t.co/N3VzlKx2IA
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) March 20, 2022
After the massive inflow of institutional funds, the cryptocurrency market’s ecosystem matured significantly and started moving independently from Bitcoin halvings. The “unpredictable walk” that Bitcoin shows right now is mostly tied to natural supply and demand in the ecosystem, which is how the strong correlation with traditional markets was easily explained.
Once the market finds more key factors to follow, the cryptocurrency industry will most likely start moving in patterns similar to trends on emerging markets. Previously, U.Today noted that Bitcoin follows the currencies of emerging countries like Brazil.
Wave shortening
Additional proof in favor of the thesis is the continuous shortening of each Bitcoin wave. The first rapid price increase of the cryptocurrency that started back in 2010 was the longest, while the second and third waves were significantly shorter.
Besides shorter trends, Woo brought up the 100-day correction that started in April, when most of the market expected the end of the rally and another yearslong bearmarket. That did not happen as the first cryptocurrency’s price rallied to almost $70,000.